Crystal Ball - A look at 1B/DH in 2005 - Part 3

Part Three of Adam Miller's series looks at Graham Koonce and Adam's analysis of what the A's might do in the off-season.

Graham Koonce, L/L, 6’4”, 220

Year	Team	Lg	Age	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	XBH	ISOP	BB/K
1994	BRISTOL	ROOKIE	19	.217	.371	.252	115	25	4	0	0	28	22	4	.035	1.27
1995	JMSTWN	NYP A	20	.280	.358	.374	289	81	16	1	3	35	63	20	.096	0.56
1996	FVILLE	SAL A	21	.239	.320	.346	486	116	22	3	8	58	97	33	.107	0.60
1997	TRI-CITY	W-IND.	22	.287	.422	.392	286	82	15	3	3	67	55	21	.105	1.22
1998	CHICO	W-IND.	23	.331	.421	.517	242	80	15	0	10	38	41	25	.186	0.93
1999	R CUCAM	CAL A	24	.285	.384	.443	474	135	16	1	19	76	110	36	.158	0.69
2000	R CUCAM	CAL A	25	.295	.424	.505	475	140	40	3	18	107	105	61	.210	1.02
2001	MOB	SOU AA	26	.266	.425	.444	320	85	18	0	13	89	83	31	.178	1.07
2001	PORT	PCL AAA	26	.214	.421	.500	14	3	1	0	1	5	6	2	.286	0.83
2002	MID	TEX AA	27	.274	.440	.487	470	120	28	0	24	133	117	52	.213	1.14
2003	SAC	PCL AAA	28	.277	.403	.542	480	133	23	1	34	98	119	58	.265	0.82
2003	OAK	MLB	28	.125	.125	.250	6	1	1	0	0	0	6	1	.125	0.00
2004	SAC	PCL AAA	29	.246	.363	.466	399	98	22	0	22	69	116	44	.220	0.59

Before the MLB draft was limited to 50 rounds (teams could just keep drafting until they decided to stop), Koonce was drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the 60th round in 1993. After bouncing around in the Tigers organization for 3 years, Graham spent 2 years in the Independent League before being picked up by the Padres, where he played at various levels for 3 more years before the A’s grabbed him in the December 2001 Rule 5 draft. Got all that? Since 1997, Koonce has been an on-base machine, with an OBP over .400 in 6 of the last 8 years, and some late-developing power.

Koonce’s finest years have come in a RockHound and River Cat uniform. Koonce has hit almost as many homeruns (70) in nearly 3 seasons in the A’s organization as he hit in his entire previous minor league career (75). One of the knocks on Graham is that he’s never been a high average hitter (except for a stretch between 1997 and 2000); ever since his power developed, his average has dipped. Koonce’s numbers have also seen a dip in 2004 from his excellent 2003 season, leading observers to wonder if Johnson has passed Koonce on the organizational depth chart.

Outlook

This is a difficult situation. It’s never a bad thing to have too much talent in the system, but at some point, you either have to trade players or not re-sign them; otherwise, you have a backlog of players at a certain position in the minors (if Koonce and Johnson stay at AAA, there is no room for other 1B/DHs to move up there). A lot of what happens in 2005 hinges on how expensive Durazo will be. If he can be signed to a reasonable extension – a one-year offer for $3-4 million, or a two- to three-year contract worth around $10 million – I think Durazo should be retained. At worst, he’ll provide similar or better production than Johnson or Koonce at this point in time. At best, he’s one of the best hitters in the league. Koonce is getting a bit old to remain in the high minors. If he isn’t given a shot in 2005, he may ask for (or be given) a chance to play elsewhere. Koonce is a bit of a luxury at this point, with Johnson and Brant Colamarino in the system, both of whom are younger players. Johnson is still young enough to spend one more year honing his skills in Sacramento, but you want to get use out of him during his prime years, when he’s cheap. It should be interesting to see how this plays out in the off-season.